Pew Research: Protestantism’s Varied Growth Amid Global Religious Shifts

In the evolving landscape of global Christianity, Protestant churches are witnessing varied trends of growth and decline. Recent research by the Pew Research Center sheds light on this phenomenon, particularly highlighting shifts in Western countries, with the UK standing out as a significant area of concern.

The study, which compiled data from surveys in 24 countries in 2024, underscores the impact of “religious switching”—a process where individuals change their religious affiliation from the one they were born into—on the global Christian demographic.

In the UK, Protestantism has been significantly impacted, experiencing a higher number of departures than arrivals. Approximately 51% of UK adults report being raised as Protestants; however, only 28% continue to identify with the faith in adulthood.

This trend is further emphasized by the fact that 23% of those initially raised Protestant have since left the faith, compared to a mere 3% who have joined as adults. Similar patterns are observed in Sweden and Germany, contributing to notable net losses in Protestant populations in these regions.

The research reveals that at least 10% of the population in 9 of the 24 countries analyzed are former Protestants, highlighting a significant shift away from the tradition globally.

One major factor driving this shift is the rise in religious disaffiliation, where individuals from Protestant backgrounds are choosing to identify with no religion rather than convert to another faith. This reflects a broader secularization trend prevalent across Western societies.

Pew notes, “Adults who leave Protestantism tend to become religiously unaffiliated.” Australia follows a similar path, with 15% of adults being former Protestants now without religious affiliation, while only about 1% convert to Catholicism and another 1% to other religions.

Despite these trends, Protestantism is not uniformly losing ground globally. In regions like Latin America, conversion rates are contributing to growth. Brazil is a case in point, where 15% of adults have converted to Protestantism, compared to 6% who have left the faith, resulting in a net gain of 9 percentage points.

Most Brazilian converts to Protestantism were previously Catholic, illustrating a dynamic shift within Christian affiliations.

Globally, Protestantism maintains a more balanced pattern compared to other Christian traditions, with gains in certain areas offsetting losses in others. In 16 out of 24 countries studied, Protestants constitute no more than about 25% of the population. However, Ghana and Kenya stand out, with Protestant majorities of 62% and 55%, respectively.

This balance is in stark contrast to Catholicism, which faces widespread losses due to religious switching in many surveyed countries. In 12 of the 24 countries, a majority were raised Catholic, with figures varying significantly, such as 59% in Hungary and 96% in Poland.

Nevertheless, a large portion of these individuals remain within the Church; in Poland, for instance, 92% of adults still identify as lifelong Catholics. Yet, former Catholics constitute at least 10% of the population in 15 surveyed countries, though Catholics remain a majority in 8 of the 24 places.

Overall, Catholicism has seen a net decline due to religious switching in 21 of the 24 countries examined. Italy exemplifies this trend, with 22% of adults having left Catholicism, leading to a 21 percentage point decline. Conversely, Hungary is the sole country with a net Catholic gain, as 5% joined the Church against 2% leaving.

In countries like Kenya and South Korea, the rates of religious entry and exit are nearly balanced. Across Europe and parts of Latin America, many former Catholics become unaffiliated, aligning with the growing number of atheists, agnostics, or those with no specific religion.

Chile highlights this trend, with nearly 19% of adults raised Catholic now identifying as having no religious affiliation. In contrast, in countries such as Nigeria, Brazil, Ghana, and the Philippines, those leaving Catholicism frequently join Protestant denominations, bolstering Protestant growth in these areas.