Shifting Evangelical Alliances in U.S. Presidential Elections
Recent analysis indicates a notable shift in the voting patterns among non-white Evangelicals in the latest U.S. presidential election, with President Donald Trump enjoying increased support. This trend aligns with existing data highlighting a growing Republican preference among Latino voters of faith.
Researcher Ryan Burge’s examination, featured on his Graphs About Religion Substack, delves into Evangelical voting habits across the last five presidential elections. His study draws on the Cooperative Election Study to compare data from 2008 through 2024.
Within this period, Burge notes significant support for Trump in the 2024 presidential race against then-Vice President Kamala Harris, marking the highest level of Republican backing from Evangelicals across racial lines since 2008.
Historically, Evangelicals have predominantly supported Republican candidates, with a slight dip in 2012 when Mitt Romney secured 69% of their votes. In contrast, Trump achieved 75% of the Evangelical vote in 2024, showing an upward trajectory from previous elections.
Trump’s appeal among white Evangelicals also reached new heights, with 83% backing him in 2024, a gradual increase from 78% in 2016 and 81% in 2020.
This rise in support was especially pronounced among non-white Evangelicals. For the first time since 2008, non-white Evangelicals did not overwhelmingly favor the Democratic candidate, with Harris capturing 49% and Trump closely following with 48% in 2024.
Burge describes Trump’s gains among non-white Evangelicals as “a huge blow,” noting a sharp contrast to the 2020 election results where Biden led Trump by 18 points within this demographic.
“There’s a lot going on in this graph but I think that the big narrative is how Trump just continues to make gains among evangelical voters,” Burge observed. His analysis further reveals that Trump’s support increased across varying levels of religious attendance, particularly among those attending church multiple times weekly.
Exit polling data from the 2024 election, involving 22,914 voters, corroborates Burge’s findings. It shows Harris leading Trump by a mere 5 points among Latinos, a stark difference from Biden’s 33-point lead in 2020. Among Latino Protestants, Trump garnered 64% support, with Latino Catholics giving him a majority of 53%.
A separate survey conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute confirms similar trends, with 64% of Latino Protestants supporting Trump and a slightly higher percentage of Hispanic Catholics preferring Harris.
Rev. Samuel Rodriguez of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, in an op-ed for The Christian Post, attributed this shift to Democratic policies perceived as contrary to Latino values, particularly regarding family and faith issues.
This article was originally written by www.christianpost.com
