Democrats Gain Advantage in Upcoming Midterms as Election Day Nears

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Democrats Poised for Gains in Midterm Elections

With just four weeks remaining until Election Day, new polling data suggests Democrats are likely to secure a narrow majority in the House. They are projected to gain between five and 15 seats, giving them 220 to 230 seats, according to the Cook Political Report. The Senate landscape is also shifting towards the Democrats, with six seats leaning more in their favor since June. These shifts occur amid low approval ratings for President Trump.

Factors Influencing the Midterms

• 🎧 Polls are only part of the picture, says NPR’s Domenico Montanaro on Up First. Other influences include historical trends, the political climate, party structures, and campaign financing. Despite these variables, the momentum appears to be shifting towards Democrats, especially in the Senate. However, Democratic gains in the House could be hampered by the party’s unpopularity and the 25 Trump-won districts they are targeting.
• ➡️ Voter registration deadlines are approaching. If you haven’t registered yet, here’s what you need to know about registration in your state.
• ➡️ Follow the latest election updates from NPR and local stations through the NPR app.

Hollywood Merger Set to Transform Entertainment

A pivotal moment for Hollywood is on the horizon as David Ellison’s $111 billion merger between Paramount-Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery is anticipated to conclude today. Despite facing significant public opposition, the merger has successfully navigated legal and regulatory hurdles in both the U.S. and Europe. This consolidation brings together Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures, two storied film studios.

• 🎧 Ellison has addressed concerns over media concentration, NPR’s Mandalit del Barco reports. In a move to mitigate fears of excessive media control, Ellison has committed to producing 30 films annually with the combined entity. Still, skepticism remains. Concerns about CNN’s independence have been addressed by Ellison’s pledge to create an independent board to prevent political meddling. Critics suggest the merger might lead to increased streaming prices and fewer viewing options.

Execution Witness Accounts in Tennessee

Catherine Sweeney from NPR station WPLN was among the seven media witnesses present at the failed execution of Christa Pike, marking Tennessee’s first attempted execution of a woman in nearly two centuries. Concerns about the lethal injection’s efficacy due to Pike’s health conditions led to a request for alternative methods. Sweeney recounts her experience during the event, which you can read here.

Speculations Over Mysterious Death in Russia

Russian authorities are urging calm following the death of a worker from a mysterious illness at a Siberian infectious diseases institute, sparking fears of a potential plague outbreak. The 28-year-old lab worker died shortly after falling ill, leaving questions about the cause of death. Learn more about what is known here.

Key Midterm Election Insights

In the lead-up to the midterm elections, Morning Edition reporters will visit six states with critical races to engage with voters and understand their priorities.

Steve Inskeep will cover North Carolina and Georgia; Michel Martin is focusing on Ohio and Michigan; Leila Fadel will report from Maine; and A Martínez will head to Texas.

Key issues for voters include the cost of living, immigration policies, and changes in the voting process. Morning Edition aims to explore these topics and more over the coming weeks.

Steve Inskeep: “I am watching and listening for people who feel this election is personal. By which I mean that, beyond their general opinion of the state of the country, they feel they were directly affected by the events of the past two years — the Trump administration’s dramatic moves to reshape immigration, government, education, science, research, the military, emergency management, taxes, foreign policy and the economy at large.”

Michel Martin: “Ohio is also a key location for the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign, as well as a leading industrial and logistics hub, a place where we should be able to see how the administration’s economic policies are playing out. Trump isn’t on the ballot, but his policies are. So let’s see how that’s going.

“Michigan was once considered a big part of the Democrats’ ‘Blue Wall,’ but in recent years has chosen both Democrats and Republicans in key races. And the Democratic base has had beef with the national party. So what’s driving voters? Are they mad? Sad? Or just exhausted? We hope to find out.”

Leila Fadel: “The path to controlling the Senate in part runs through Maine, and that’s why we’re reporting in the state before the midterm elections. I want to know what drives voters, and how much party loyalty still plays a role. Are their votes up for grabs? Or are they locked in along party lines?”

“This is a state that’s seen some of the worst of the immigration crackdown; a man was killed by ICE. It has one of the longest borders with Canada, and so the trade war hits differently. The Democratic candidate Troy Jackson is facing incumbent Susan Collins, who has won her state five times before. So, we’ll be asking what people want from their candidate and if it matters which party that resonating message comes from.”

A Martínez: “Texas Republicans gerrymandered five congressional districts to favor the GOP in the upcoming midterms. In three of them, the new maps created more Latino voters.”

“What’s behind the Texas GOP’s big bet on Latino voters, and will it help Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate?”

Follow the reporting: Maine coverage airs today. Texas is up next on Oct. 13, followed by reporting from North Carolina and Georgia, and Ohio and Michigan. You can follow along on Morning Edition, NPR.org, in the NPR app and in the Up First newsletter.

A Global Breakfast Series

A new NPR series is exploring breakfast traditions worldwide. In Munich, Germany, a typical Bavarian breakfast features boiled veal sausage, sweet mustard, and a large pretzel, traditionally enjoyed with beer. Demetrios Kyriakides, who researched Bavarian breakfast spots in Munich, emphasizes the importance of Gemütlichkeit, a term describing the cozy, friendly atmosphere that accompanies the meal, often enjoyed with brass oom-pah-pah music. This hearty breakfast concludes before noon, signaling the end of the morning feast. View photos of Munich breakfasts.

Three Key Updates

1. Under artistic director Robert Garland, Dance Theatre of Harlem is entering a new phase by reviving its iconic 1982 production of Firebird for an international tour.
2. Researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst have identified what could be the world’s loudest birds, all located in Brazil. (via WBUR)
3. Scientist Olivia Sanderfoot aims to create a new field called “smoke ecology,” investigating the effects of wildfire smoke on wildlife and strategies to mitigate its impact.

This newsletter was edited by Suzanne Nuyen.