The task of defining and quantifying the evangelical population worldwide is as complex as it is crucial. This issue came into focus during a webinar held on September 2 by the World Evangelical Alliance, made public on September 5. The event featured Dr. Gina A. Zurlo and Jason Mandryk, both prominent in the field of global religious demography.
Dr. Gina A. Zurlo, known for her role as editor of the World Christian Database and as a lecturer at Harvard Divinity School, along with Jason Mandryk, editor of Operation World, delved into the challenges of measuring a movement that’s increasingly diverse and shifting toward the Global South.
According to both experts, evangelicalism lacks a universally accepted definition, unlike Catholicism or Orthodoxy. This absence of a clear definition complicates the effort to count its adherents, yet the need for accurate numbers remains significant for understanding global changes in Christianity.
Mandryk began his talk with a candid remark: “There is no such thing as the evangelical.”
He explained how the term varies in meaning depending on the context. Within church communities, it signifies theological commitments like the authority of Scripture and evangelistic activism. In secular settings, especially in Western media and politics, it often has negative connotations, linked to anti-science attitudes or partisan identity.
“Virtually nobody is using it exactly the same way,” Mandryk said. “And most people aren’t bothering to try to understand how others are using it.”
Zurlo agreed, highlighting the term’s fluidity compared to more structured denominations like Catholicism or Presbyterianism. She sees this ambiguity not as a flaw but as a sociological reality that requires nuanced descriptions rather than strict definitions.
Why Numbers Matter
Both speakers stressed that counting evangelicals isn’t about judging salvation. “We are not God,” Zurlo remarked. Instead, the purpose is to monitor demographic shifts that significantly affect global Christianity.
“Christianity and evangelicalism look fundamentally different than they did a generation ago,” Zurlo noted, emphasizing the shift towards the Global South.
Mandryk pointed out that evangelicalism has been a major influence on modern Christianity, both positively and negatively. It unites Christians in mission and prayer but also divides them over doctrinal, political, and cultural issues. Measuring the movement helps to understand its impact.
Operation World’s Method: The Bebbington Quadrilateral
Operation World utilizes historian David Bebbington’s framework, known as the Bebbington Quadrilateral, which outlines four central traits of evangelicalism.
The first trait is biblicism, the belief in the Bible’s supreme authority in faith and practice. Next is crucicentrism, emphasizing Christ’s sacrificial death as central to the gospel. Conversionism, the third trait, underscores the personal experience of new birth through Christ. Lastly, activism highlights living out faith through evangelism and social engagement.
Mandryk explained that his team evaluates denominations globally using these criteria, consulting national leaders and researchers to reflect local realities.
This approach estimates over 700 million evangelicals worldwide, considering overlaps with Pentecostal and charismatic traditions.
World Christian Database’s Threefold Model
Zurlo offered another framework from the World Christian Database, developed over nearly two decades of research, employing social-scientific categories to define “wider evangelicalism.” It consists of three layers:
Type 1: Denominational affiliation – Churches affiliated with evangelical councils, accounting for about 393 million adherents, nearly half in Africa.
Type 2: Pentecostals and charismatics – Combined with Type 1, this totals 635 million, sharing evangelical emphases despite doctrinal differences.
Type 3: Majority world Protestants – Includes mainline Protestants in the Global South and U.S. black Protestant churches, adding 302 million.
Combined, these categories suggest a global evangelical population of 937 million—almost one in eight people.
The Challenge of Contested Boundaries
Zurlo highlighted the complexity with global examples.
In Brazil, the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God, a large neo-Pentecostal movement, emphasizes salvation and Scripture but is also associated with prosperity teachings. Brazilian pastors had varied opinions on its evangelical status, ranging from 0% to 100%.
Similarly, African-American Protestant churches in the U.S. share evangelical beliefs but often avoid the label due to political and racial implications. In China, where churches cannot formally join evangelical alliances, researchers estimate a high percentage could be described as evangelical.
“Who gets to decide?” Zurlo asked, advocating for descriptions of overlapping traits rather than strict definitions.
Converging Conclusions Despite Different Methods
Despite their different methods, both Operation World and the World Christian Database conclude that evangelicalism is no longer Western-centered.
Mandryk noted that by 1980, evangelicals became a Global South majority. Today, 70% of people are born into a world where evangelicalism is primarily African, Asian, and Latin American.
“The stereotypes that dominate headlines—white, Western, English-speaking, politically conservative—are not what evangelicalism looks like globally,” he said. “Evangelicals are Zulu, Chinese, Brazilian, Filipino. And that diversity is something to celebrate.”
Zurlo’s data supports this view. In her broadest definition, 47% of evangelicals are in Africa, 26% in Asia, and only 11% in North America. China now has the largest evangelical population, surpassing the United States.
Both scholars call for humility and recognition that the demographic center of evangelicalism lies elsewhere.
“It’s not people who look like me who should be defining the identity markers of evangelical belief and practice,” Zurlo said. “It’s Asians, Africans, Latin Americans, and islanders who now represent the demographic center of the movement.”
Mandryk echoed this, emphasizing that evangelical diversity reflects the global church’s diversity. “The body of Christ is incredibly diverse,” he said. “Evangelicalism is equally diverse in geography, theology, and practice. That is something to embrace.”
Between 393 Million and 937 Million
So how many evangelicals are there? Zurlo estimates the number between 393 million and 937 million, depending on the definition. This range, though broad, reflects the complex nature of the movement.
For Mandryk, the diversity represented by these numbers is more significant than the exact count. “All of these numbers are just attempts by researchers to describe what God is actually doing on the ground,” he said.
Both scholars agree that evangelicalism should be seen as a dynamic global family, connected by shared traits rather than rigid boundaries.
“Global evangelicalism is more diverse than you think,” Zurlo concluded. “And yet we can all find our place in it. That’s its strength, not its weakness.”
© Christian Daily International
This article was originally written by www.christiantoday.com
