Controversial Census Report Fuels Debate Over Noncitizen Voting Claims
Recent discussions around noncitizen voting in the 2020 presidential election have been reignited by a contentious report from the Census Bureau. The report, backed by President Trump, has been criticized for its methodology and connections to a Trump-aligned think tank.
President Trump is joined by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who oversees the Census Bureau, as he speaks in the White House’s Oval Office in 2025.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
President Trump has recently cited a preliminary Census Bureau report to back claims of illegal voting by noncitizens in the 2020 election. According to Trump, the analysis reveals over 24,000 instances of noncitizen voting, with numbers expected to rise. However, experts have criticized the report’s methodology and the involvement of individuals linked to Trump’s America First Policy Institute.
The report, available here, utilizes a 2020 voter file and federal records. Yet, its accuracy remains in question. The analysis was not conducted by Census Bureau staff, further raising concerns.
While the America First Policy Institute has endorsed the report, claiming it enhances election transparency, critics argue it perpetuates unfounded voter fraud narratives. Trump’s continued allegations of a rigged 2020 election coincide with efforts to push for stricter voting laws, as detailed here.
Election experts, like David Becker of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, dismiss the report. Becker remarked, “This analysis is laughable. Census data cannot reliably be matched to voter data.” Similarly, University of Pennsylvania’s Michael Morse highlighted potential errors due to mismatched records.
Former Census Bureau staff express concern over the agency’s nonpartisan reputation. Misty Heggeness, a former economist for the Bureau, noted the absence of authorship and the lack of traditional rigor. Likewise, Amy O’Hara emphasized the risk of incorrect matches inflating noncitizen voter numbers.
The report’s release comes amidst significant staff changes within the Bureau, following workforce reductions during the Trump administration. With upcoming proposals for the 2030 census, the Bureau may face further challenges, as highlighted in previous coverage here.
As discussions continue, experts caution against accepting the report’s findings without scrutiny. Public trust in official statistics remains precarious, and the need for transparency is paramount.
