Unpacking the Long-Term Educational Decline in U.S. Schools
Recent analysis reveals that the decline in math and reading scores among U.S. students is not a recent occurrence but part of an ongoing “learning recession” that predates the COVID-19 pandemic. This insight comes from the latest Education Scorecard, a collaborative effort by Stanford University and Harvard University.
Now in its fourth year, the Scorecard provides a comprehensive look at student performance trends, offering crucial insights for educators and policymakers struggling to address persistent declines in academic achievement.
Key findings include significant math gains in many states and the beneficial impact of federal relief funds on lower-income districts. However, reading scores remain largely stagnant, with progress observed only in states that have reformed their educational approaches.
The Roots of the “Learning Recession”
From 1990 to 2013, there was a steady increase in math achievements among fourth and eighth graders, with students performing at levels two grades higher by the end of this period. “That’s enormous progress,” notes Stanford’s Sean Reardon, a Scorecard author. Reading scores also improved, albeit to a lesser extent.
However, a concerning decline began around 2013, which the report describes as “striking and anomalous.” This trend continued into the pandemic years, leading to questions about its origins.
Theories Behind the Decline
The Scorecard posits two main theories for the downturn:
1. Decreased Test-Based Accountability: The decline coincides with the de-emphasis of the No Child Left Behind Act’s stringent testing requirements. By 2013, many states received waivers from these mandates, leading to a reduced focus on student achievement metrics.
2. Rise in Social Media Use: The same period saw a rapid increase in social media usage among teenagers. Pew Research indicates that nearly half of teens were online “almost constantly” by 2022, with lower-achieving students being the most frequent users.
Signs of Recovery and Continuing Challenges
Despite the setbacks, there are hopeful signs of recovery. Most states have shown math score improvements since 2022, with Washington D.C. leading the way. However, reading remains problematic, with only a few states making significant progress.
Louisiana is the only state to have returned to its pre-pandemic performance levels in both subjects. Sean Reardon underscores the potential for improvement, citing past successes in narrowing achievement gaps.
The U-Shaped Recovery and Federal Support
From 2022 to 2025, schools experienced a U-shaped recovery, with the highest and lowest poverty districts seeing the most gains. Federal COVID relief played a critical role in supporting high-poverty areas, providing resources for interventions like tutoring and summer programs.
“If it hadn’t been for the federal pandemic relief,” says Harvard’s Thomas Kane, “we estimate there would have been no recovery on average for the highest-poverty districts.”
The Science of Reading Movement
Several states have adopted the “science of reading” approach, focusing on phonics-based instruction. This shift has been linked to reading improvements in states that implemented these reforms between 2022 and 2025, although the connection is not definitively causal.
Baltimore City Public Schools, under CEO Sonja Brookins Santelises, embraced this approach early, resulting in substantial reading gains despite socioeconomic challenges.
Classroom Success in Baltimore
In Baltimore, the changes are evident in classrooms like Kimberly Lowery’s kindergarten class at Johnston Square Elementary. Her phonics-based teaching methods have led to impressive reading proficiency among her students, illustrating the potential of targeted educational reforms.
Lowery encourages her students, telling them to “kiss their brains,” reinforcing their achievements and fostering a positive learning environment.
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