White House Insider Faces Investigation Over Alleged Prediction Market Gains
Amidst the growing popularity of prediction markets, a federal investigation has surfaced involving a White House staffer accused of leveraging insider information. Gabriel Perez, President Trump’s teleprompter operator, is under scrutiny for allegedly profiting nearly $100,000 through trades on Kalshi, a prediction market platform.
According to sources familiar with the inquiry, Perez reportedly capitalized on his access to the president’s speeches by betting on “mention markets” on Kalshi. These markets allow participants to wager on specific words or phrases the president might use during public addresses.
Prediction markets like Kalshi have seen a surge in activity, where users speculate on various outcomes, from election results to the president’s attire. The recent probe into Perez marks the first instance of a White House official being investigated for allegedly exploiting such platforms for personal gain.
Perez, who has been part of Trump’s team since 2016, is currently in settlement discussions with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. His betting activities drew attention after Kalshi’s monitoring systems detected atypical trading behavior linked to his federal employment status.
Kalshi’s proactive measures played a crucial role in uncovering Perez’s actions. “Our surveillance team promptly flagged and referred these trades to the CFTC after an exchange investigation. We have been assisting regulators on this matter and provided evidence we collected, as we do in any referral,” stated Robert DeNault, head of enforcement at Kalshi.
The platform has since frozen approximately $90,000 of Perez’s earnings, and he is banned from further trading. Meanwhile, Perez remains on unpaid administrative leave, with White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt condemning his actions as “a disgrace.”
Kalshi traders have already wagered over $800,000 on whether President Trump will mention terms like “Hormuz,” “rigged election,” or “fake news” in an upcoming address. The president’s tendency for spontaneous speeches makes the “mention markets” highly volatile and attractive to speculators.
Despite the ongoing investigation, it’s unclear if the Department of Justice is involved. However, a memo circulated among White House staff in March warned against using nonpublic information for trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, emphasizing that such activities could lead to criminal charges.
Other high-profile cases highlight the risks of insider trading on prediction markets. In April, a U.S. Army special forces soldier faced charges for earning $400,000 on Polymarket, followed by a Google software engineer accused of making $1.2 million in May. Former congressman George Santos is also under investigation for manipulating a Kalshi market related to his attendance at a State of the Union address.
